Courtesy of Allan Trends
The market has quickly gained back what it lost going into the close yesterday. It is churning at current levels. The trend regression level on the hourly chart of the DJIA shows exactly what I am referring to by, “churning.” The range is about 200 points, but the net progress made in either direction is close to zero.
(click on charts to enlarge)
The prior Short signal resulted in fast decline of 1,000 points. If the DJIA hourly model turns down, expect at least the same, maybe double. For now, prices are going sideways within the context of a shorter-term Long. An hourly close below 12,367 turns this model Short.
Today’s rally is is enough to push DJIA Daily into a Long Pending mode, but is not yet strong enough to turn the Hourly SPX and NASDAQ models Long:
For perspective, here is where we are on the Nasdaq Daily chart:
Even if the DJIA Daily Trend Model does reverse Long today, it’s still hard to make an intermediate-term bearish case for the general market. In front of us is another news filled weekend that could push the market in either direction come Monday. For now, I am comfortable holding Short by a “weight of the evidence,” standard.
Allan's Trend Following Model is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Learn more about Allan Trends here.