The Math Behind Egan-Jones’ Downgrade of Knight to Triple Hooks

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here.

Submitted by Tyler Durden.

Moments ago, Egan Jones downgraded Knight Capital again, having downgraded the firm yesterday, from B- to CCC. The reason: the math just does not work out (pretty much as is the case with Europe, and the entire Welfare state developed world paradigm, but that's a different story). Full logic below.

Tough math – KCG probably needs $600M of equity capital but its market cap is only $300M and therefore probably can only raise $80M to $90M using normal rules of thumb. A sale of the firm would take 90 days under good conditions and therefore only an equity or quasi-equity investment makes sense. However, with weakness in the markets, there is likely to be few likely buyers. In a good year KCG earns $115M and therefore the $440M loss is debilitating. (Watch for the secondary losses related the loss of client confidence.) Net revs for the June quarter declined by 13% YoY. The Market-Making segment revenues were down 21% with pre-tax income down 84% from $39.2M to $5.9M due to trading losses related to the Facebook IPO. June quarter oper inc was down from $29.5M to $5.4M. We are downgrading

Source: EJ

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