Headline Jobs +163,000, But Household Survey Shows -195,000 Jobs; Unemployment +.1 to 8.3%

Courtesy of Mish.

ADP got the headline job number correct, I certainly didn’t. However, one look beneath the surface shows this was actually an anemic jobs report.

Unemployment was up, and the household survey shows a loss of 195,000 jobs. The household numbers are even worse because part-time employment went up.

Jobs Report at a Glance

Here is an overview of today’s release.

  • US Payrolls +163,000 – Establishment Survey
  • US Employment -195,000  – Household Survey
  • US Unemployment Rate +.01 at 8.3% – Household Survey
  • The Civilian Labor Force fell by 150,000. Otherwise the unemployment rate would have risen more.
  • Average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls steady at 34.5 hours
  • The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls steady at 33.7 hours.
  • Average hourly earnings for all employees in the private nonfarm workers sector rose by 2 cents.
  • The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised from +77,000 to +87,000, and the change for June was revised from +80,000 to +64,000.

Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

  • US Unemployment Rate +.1 to 8.3% 
  • In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,683,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 1,655,000.
  • This month the Civilian Labor Force fell by 150,000.
  • This month, those “not” in the labor force increased by 348,000 to 88,340,000, another record high. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed. 
  • In the last year, those “not” in the labor force rose by 2,027,000 
  • Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,770,000.
  • Participation Rate was steady at 63.8%;
  • There are 8,246,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work, an increase of 36,000
  • Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 5.185 million a decline of 185,000.
  • Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be well over 11%.

Over the past several years people have dropped out of the labor force at an astounding, almost unbelievable rate, holding the unemployment rate artificially low. Some of this was due to major revisions last month on account of the 2010 census finally factored in. However, most of it is simply economic weakness.

June 2012 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) July 2012 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 163,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 8.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and manufacturing..



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