Nobody Said It Was Easy

Nobody Said It Was Easy

Courtesy of Allan Harris of AllanTrends

New Signals

SPX Hourly Trend Model————> LONG

NASDAQ Hourly Trend Model——> LONG

TLT Daily Trend Model————-> SHORT

AAPL Daily Trend Model———-> LONG

Weekend Market Comments

Stock Indexes

I really was hoping for, “The Perfect Set-Up” described last weekend: A higher high for the week coupled with a lower close. Instead, all major indexes closed higher for the week, albeit not by much. Since none of the major (or minor) market indexes reversed Long in their Weekly Models, the April-May TOP pattern is still in effect.

[click on charts to enlarge]

DJIA 2011-2012


DJIA Weekly Trend Model


Note below that the broader Value Line Index (and IWM) did complete, “The Perfect Set-Up,” by closing lower for the week, but, in my view, the major averages needed to confirm and they did not.

Value Line Weekly


The VXX Hourly Trend Model has had just a stellar Short Signal from July 26th. As you can see in the Trend Table below, the Hourly Signal is up 11% (in one week) and the Daily signal is up 34% (in one month). As with the indexes, between the Hourly and Daily models, the meaningful trends are covered and trading these trends should be become very straightforward. These changes should make the trend models and this service easier to get and easier to trade.

VXX Hourly Trend Model



GLD and SLV are acting like a married couple sleeping in twin beds. I am still waiting for one of them to join the other, either Long or Short, before any serious trading commitment. SLV has been very good to us this year, but I don’t care which of these ultimately prevails, I am willing to swing both ways.

USO reversed Long on July 3rd and after a sideways drift, turned up nicely with stocks on Friday. UCO turned up with USO and should outperform by 2X.


USO Daily Trend Model




Stocks & ETFs

Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)

XLE Daily Trend Model


If both Oil and Stocks are headed higher, or, if either one of them is going higher, XLE may present an interesting play.

“The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of publicly traded equity securities of companies in The Energy Select Sector Index…..Energy companies in this Index primarily develop and produce crude oil and natural gas, and provide drilling and other energy-related services. Leaders in the group include ExxonMobil Corp., Chevron Corp, and ConocoPhillips.” (SectorSPDR)


The Trend Model does a nice job of getting out and then back in, which of course is what its designed to do and it has been doing it well with this ETF.


Netflix (NFLX)

NFLX Daily Trend Model


NFLX is a stock we are actively trading in the Expanded Service and the Daily Trend Model has been almost perfect. Buy at 80, sell at 108, buy back at 75, sell again at 71 and ride it down into the mid-50′s. With the DJIA up 217 points on Friday, NFLX was down for the day.


US Steel (X)

X Daily Trend Model


If the US economy is turning back up, one would think that US Steel would be leading the way. It’s two days into a fresh Buy signal. Below is a longer-term perspective, a weekly chart showing X being cut in half in about 18 months. Not good.

X Weekly Trend Model


Star Scientific (CIGX)

Let’s close this weekend’s update with our new “story stock,” CIGX.  On the chart below prices are hugging onto the middle trend regression line, not falling through to the lower channel as it has in the past, but consolidating along the middle trend line:

CIGX Daily Trend Model & Trend Regression Channel


CIGX Hourly

CIGX is beginning to get recognized as developing a disruptive medical technology that will affect diverse medical conditions, some catastrophic  and lacking any effective treatments. This just as the baby boom generation is entering that aging tunnel of afflictions. Below are two examinations of the fundamentals, the first an initiation of coverage by Gilford Securities and the second quite an entertaining bit of hyperbole by Patrick Cox of Agora. CIGX is a Strong Buy & Hold.

(1) Star Scientific, Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGX), A Disruptive Science?

(2) An Opportunity to Hit the Mother Load – Patrick Cox




Editors Note: Our resident pharma/biotech investor is not excited about Star Scientific at all. Here’s what Pharmboy wrote when the stock was trading at $4.85:

1. Products are tobacco related products and dietary supplements. Earnings are horrid compared to valuation. Yes earnings are growing, but at 4.85/share, and revenue of 1M……market cap of 750M…..that is not really sustainable. Things go through fads, and when they end, it comes very quickly.

2. Anatabloc is a supplement that is in GNC stores. I point to other supplements that have gone through fads that are no longer around. If I could remember, that would be great, but since I cannot, I will/cannot invest in something that has no medicinal value. (Oh, yeah….zinc lozenges…remember those?).

I am not a fan, nor will be in the near future…..


Nobody said investing was easy. 

Allan’s Trend Following Model is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Learn more about Allan Trends here. 

For a risk-free trial, click here for Allan’s standard service. More active traders might enjoy Allan’s premium service.


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