Courtesy of Allan Harris of AllanTrends
SPX Hourly Trend Model————> LONG
NASDAQ Hourly Trend Model——> LONG
TLT Daily Trend Model————-> SHORT
AAPL Daily Trend Model———-> LONG
Weekend Market Comments
I really was hoping for, “The Perfect Set-Up” described last weekend: A higher high for the week coupled with a lower close. Instead, all major indexes closed higher for the week, albeit not by much. Since none of the major (or minor) market indexes reversed Long in their Weekly Models, the April-May TOP pattern is still in effect.
[click on charts to enlarge]
Note below that the broader Value Line Index (and IWM) did complete, “The Perfect Set-Up,” by closing lower for the week, but, in my view, the major averages needed to confirm and they did not.
The VXX Hourly Trend Model has had just a stellar Short Signal from July 26th. As you can see in the Trend Table below, the Hourly Signal is up 11% (in one week) and the Daily signal is up 34% (in one month). As with the indexes, between the Hourly and Daily models, the meaningful trends are covered and trading these trends should be become very straightforward. These changes should make the trend models and this service easier to get and easier to trade.
GLD and SLV are acting like a married couple sleeping in twin beds. I am still waiting for one of them to join the other, either Long or Short, before any serious trading commitment. SLV has been very good to us this year, but I don’t care which of these ultimately prevails, I am willing to swing both ways.
USO reversed Long on July 3rd and after a sideways drift, turned up nicely with stocks on Friday. UCO turned up with USO and should outperform by 2X.
Stocks & ETFs
Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)
If both Oil and Stocks are headed higher, or, if either one of them is going higher, XLE may present an interesting play.
“The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of publicly traded equity securities of companies in The Energy Select Sector Index…..Energy companies in this Index primarily develop and produce crude oil and natural gas, and provide drilling and other energy-related services. Leaders in the group include ExxonMobil Corp., Chevron Corp, and ConocoPhillips.” (SectorSPDR)
The Trend Model does a nice job of getting out and then back in, which of course is what its designed to do and it has been doing it well with this ETF.
NFLX is a stock we are actively trading in the Expanded Service and the Daily Trend Model has been almost perfect. Buy at 80, sell at 108, buy back at 75, sell again at 71 and ride it down into the mid-50′s. With the DJIA up 217 points on Friday, NFLX was down for the day.
US Steel (X)
If the US economy is turning back up, one would think that US Steel would be leading the way. It’s two days into a fresh Buy signal. Below is a longer-term perspective, a weekly chart showing X being cut in half in about 18 months. Not good.
Star Scientific (CIGX)
Let’s close this weekend’s update with our new “story stock,” CIGX. On the chart below prices are hugging onto the middle trend regression line, not falling through to the lower channel as it has in the past, but consolidating along the middle trend line:
CIGX is beginning to get recognized as developing a disruptive medical technology that will affect diverse medical conditions, some catastrophic and lacking any effective treatments. This just as the baby boom generation is entering that aging tunnel of afflictions. Below are two examinations of the fundamentals, the first an initiation of coverage by Gilford Securities and the second quite an entertaining bit of hyperbole by Patrick Cox of Agora. CIGX is a Strong Buy & Hold.
Editors Note: Our resident pharma/biotech investor is not excited about Star Scientific at all. Here’s what Pharmboy wrote when the stock was trading at $4.85:
1. Products are tobacco related products and dietary supplements. Earnings are horrid compared to valuation. Yes earnings are growing, but at 4.85/share, and revenue of 1M……market cap of 750M…..that is not really sustainable. Things go through fads, and when they end, it comes very quickly.
2. Anatabloc is a supplement that is in GNC stores. I point to other supplements that have gone through fads that are no longer around. If I could remember, that would be great, but since I cannot, I will/cannot invest in something that has no medicinal value. (Oh, yeah….zinc lozenges…remember those?).
I am not a fan, nor will be in the near future…..
Nobody said investing was easy.
Allan’s Trend Following Model is based on his trend-following trading system for buying and selling stocks and ETFs. Most trades last for weeks to months. Learn more about Allan Trends here.