September Jobs +114,000; Unemployment Rate 7.8%; Part-Time Workers +582,000; Initial Reaction and Election Impact

Courtesy of Mish.

Initial Reaction and Election Impact

The establishment report of +114,000 jobs was pretty much about what most expected. The four-month average is a mere 120,000 a month (a very weak set of establishment numbers for this point in a recovery).

However, the household survey surprise shows the unemployment rate fell three-tenths of a percent to 7.8%.

On the surface, this is a solid showing, and 100% certain to boost the Obama campaign. I suggest these numbers will overshadow a horrendously weak performance by the president in the debate.

That said, a closer look shows the entire drop in the unemployment rate can be attributed to a surprise rise of 582,000 in part-time workers. U-6 unemployment remained at 14.7%. U-6 includes part-time workers who want a full-time job.

Still, all things considered, this was the strongest report in four months.

Does it change my recession outlook?

No, it doesn’t. A one-month potential outlier based primarily on a rise in part-time employment, accompanied by other weak data does not change my perception.

Jobs Report at a Glance

Here is an overview of today’s release.

  • September Payrolls +114,000 – Establishment Survey
  • Four-month average +120,000 – Establishment Survey
  • US Employment +873,000 – Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work +582,000 – Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate -.03 at 7.8% – Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment did not drop. It remained at 14.7%.
  • The Civilian Labor Force +418,000

Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data….



Continue Here

Enter Email Address

Speak Your Mind

%d bloggers like this: