Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner
So I’ve gotten a few things right lately.
The stock market keeps rallying. I’ve been pretty steadfastly bullish since last November and published as early as January 23 that the market was headed for 1600. Got that right. Not hard if you face the fact that the market is rigged and the rigging works until it doesn’t.
And the Federal budget deficit is shrinking. I’ve been forecasting that since last October, arguing that the fecal cliff and secastration were bullish because they would reduce Treasury supply and because the Fed’s massive, historic level of money printing under non crisis conditions would cause a meltup in stocks.
I recognized the turn in housing prices early in 2012. Got all that right. I went from being bearish on Treasuries to intermediate term bullish a few months ago. Right again.
Meanwhile most of the pundits have been continually surprised by these things.
A couple of my subscribers and others who follow my free reports have given me pats on the back, which I very much appreciated. But that makes me nervous. Usually no one pays any attention to the guy standing on the hill shaking his fist at the moon. Most everyone thinks he’s a nut and they ignore him. I feel like that guy, and I know how much I have been able to see that the leading lights in the media and on Wall Street haven’t seen, or pretended not to see.
So how have I managed to see what others have not? I’m no genius. I’m just an average guy following the teachings of the great economic philosopher Yogi. The great Yogi said a couple of things that have stuck in my mind.
“It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.”
“You can observe a lot by watching.”
I don’t necessarily agree with the first, but definitely agree with the second. I’ve found that by watching the flow of facts closely over long periods, the trends become clearer, earlier. By “facts” I mean raw data, not the media’s interpretation of the data. It’s actually easy to make predictions, and not that hard to get them right if we pay attention to the facts. If we recognize the trend, it’s usually a good bet that it will continue if none of the factors contributing to it are changing. And if they are changing and you’re paying attention to the facts, then it’s not hard to recognize that they are changing early enough in the game to be ahead of the crowd, especially since the crowd usually never gets to the point of recognition until it’s too late.
In the process of “watching,” I’ve also recognized that there’s a pile of misinformation out there, but because it’s broadcast loud and long, it’s all most people ever see or hear. I don’t know why that is, other than that I suspect that the vested interests–the plutocrats, the politicians they own, and their media mouthpieces– who control the message, know only the message. They have no regard for the facts, because if they control the message, the facts are irrelevant. This is the essence of Goebbelsian propaganda.
Now don’t get me wrong, these people aren’t Nazis. Goebbels, the father of modern propaganda, was a Nazi. His evil was unspeakable. Today’s plutocrats and their media handmaidens are not on the same order of magnitude of evil, but they use propaganda tools championed by Goebbels nevertheless, particularly the idea of promoting the Big Lie over and over until it becomes truth. Perhaps it would be less inflammatory to call it Orwellian propaganda, but Orwell merely fictionalized the reality of Goebbels, as well as the Soviets. Goebbels perfected propaganda. All national plutocratic political machines use the tools he developed.
Eventually, for brief but cataclysmic periods, reality catches up with and overpowers the illusions which the Establishment has promulgated . Then most people are in shock for a while. We are repeatedly told that nobody saw “it” coming. That’s part and parcel of the ongoing message. But it is not true. Many people who are not in the limelight see “it” coming. But the Establishment elites continue to promote only their message, and that’s what people see and hear. The truth is constantly suppressed. Constantly.
As I see it, my job is to stick religiously to watching the facts found in the raw data as it unfolds, and to stand on that hill shouting and shaking my fist at the moon about what I see. There are a few of us out there, including many greater lights and louder voices than mine. I keep hoping, apparently in vain, that sooner or later enough people might hear us, and do something about it, that change will come.
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