Archives for June 2014

What Was The ‘Real’ Level of 1st Qtr GDP?

Courtesy of Larry Doyle. Anyone with a modicum of ‘sense on cents’ is well aware of the maxim ‘garbage in, garbage out.’ If we are to believe that the inflation data reported by Uncle Sam does not properly capture the true level of price increases in our economy — did somebody say intentionally misleading — […]

Expert opinion… that was dead wrong.

It pays to question assumptions, even from ‘expert’ sources. By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows  

Too Much TV Linked to Premature Death – Yahoo News

Before you congratulate yourself for engaging in less than 4 hours of T.V. a day, watching tickers move across your computer screen is not doing your health any good either. And the Mediterranean diet and running on the treadmill are not undoing the damage.  Too Much TV Linked to Premature Death By Rachael Rettner  Adults who watch a […]

How Barclays Got Caught Red-Handed With “Pernicious HFT Fraud”

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here. First it was gold, now it is HFT – poor Barclays just can't get away with any market rigging crime these days. Remember when in the aftermath of the most recent Michael Lewis-inspired HFT scandal, one after another HFT and Dark Pool exchange swore up and down they […]

Bed, Bath & (Beyond explanation)

Bed, Bath & Beyond – An overreaction? By Dr. Paul Price BBBY management had said previously that they expected the May quarter to come in at $0.92 – $0.96 per share. Actual EPS were right in that range, at $0.93, flat with last year. Fiscal Q2 is also projected to be flattish. The company still expects […]

Truly Inane Bloomberg Analysis On Gold

Courtesy of Mish. Bad economic analysis abounds. Some of it is so bad you wonder if the authors understand how any markets work, not just the topic of discussion. For example, please consider Gold Euphoria Won’t Last With Yellen’s Rally Fading, a truly remarkable exercise because it took three Bloomberg writers to produce. Here are […]

“Three Es Suggest Massive Change is Upon Us” Chris Martenson’s Accelerated Crash Course

Courtesy of Mish. Chris Martenson at Peak Prosperity put together a condensed version of his 4.5-hour long Crash Course Video Series. The condensed version is just under an hour long, and it’s well worth your time to play it. The video is not about an “economic crash” per se, although Chris and I both think […]

Diving Into the GDP Report of -2.9% Growth

Courtesy of Mish. The first quarter GDP initial projection was 0.1%. The second estimate came in at -1.0%. Today the third estimate came in at -2.9%. Gosh, first quarter weather was far worse than anyone realized. Let’s dive into the First Quarter 2014 Third Estimate from the BEA for some weather-details. Real GDP declined 2.9 […]

They’re Lying To Us, Part 2: GDP

Courtesy of John Rubino. Today the US took its next-to-last stab at calculating First Quarter GDP, and the downward revision was impressive even by recent standards. It now appears that the economy, well, here’s how Bloomberg puts it: U.S. Economy Shrank in First Quarter by Most in Five YearsThe U.S. economy contracted in the first […]

Debt Rattle June 25 2014: We Live in Our Own Past

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth. Harris & Ewing Kids, police motorcycles with sidecars, and streetcar, WashingtonDC 1922 I’m going to step into uncharted territory, a for lack of a better word philosophical theme that I’ve long had on my mind but can’t quite figure out completely yet, and I would like you to tell me […]

BOE’s Carney: Inflated Central Bank Balance Sheet the New Normal; Expect to Hear the Same Conclusion from the U.S. Fed

Courtesy of Pam Martens. Mark Carney, BOE Governor, Testifying Before Parliament on June 24, 2014 The tabloids in London are having a field day today with headlines calling Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, an “unreliable boyfriend” – a remark made yesterday by MP Pat McFadden during a hearing of the Treasury Select Committee of […]

The Happy Story of Boomers Retiring on Their Generational Wealth Is Wrong

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith, Of Two Minds This happy story is wrong on multiple counts. The conventional view of the Baby Boomers' retirement is a happy story: since we're living longer and remaining productive longer, Boomers will not be as much of a burden on Gen-X and Gen-Y as doom-and-gloomers assume. Not only are Boomers staying productive longer, […]

1st Qtr GDP (-2.9%) Turns Corner, Goes Off Cliff

Courtesy of Larry Doyle. Are you sick of being lied to? Virtually every economist and political pundit came into 2014 touting this year as being the one in which our economy turns the corner. Well, in the first quarter of the year I guess we did turn the corner . . . and in doing […]

GDP Disaster: Final Q1 GDP Crashes To -2.9%, Lowest Since 2009, Far Below The Worst Expectations

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here. Submitted by Tyler Durden. Remember when in January 2014, Q1 GDP was expected to rise 2.6%? Well, here comes the final Q1 GDP revision and it's a doozy: at -2.9%, far below the -1.8% expected and well below the -1.0% second revision, it is an absolute disaster, and […]

H is for Hindsight Bias

    #187234187 / gettyimages.com H is for Hindsight Bias Courtesy of Tim Richards at Psy Fi Blog Hindsight Bias is the tricky problem that in the past we think we predicted the present, so here in the present we think we can predict the future. Only we didn't predict the present, we only think we […]

More “noise” from the futures markets

More "noise" from the futures markets Courtesy of Sober Look   Lean hogs: Aug-14 contract –   Source: Barchart    Live cattle: Aug-14 contract –   Source: Barchart These price increases are mostly driven by exogenous factors such as the 2012 drought and the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus. Nevertheless combine this with higher energy and […]

Kurdistan Leader Calls for “Self-Determination”; Kurds Sell Oil to Israel; Kerry’s New Definition of “Intervention”

Courtesy of Mish. Iraqi Kurdistan leader Massoud Barzani says ‘the time is here‘ for self-determination. Iraqi Kurdish President Massoud Barzani gave his strongest-ever indication on Monday that his region would seek formal independence from the rest of Iraq. “Iraq is obviously falling apart,” he told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour in an exclusive interview. “And it’s obvious […]

These Fake Rallies Will End In Tears: “If People Stop Believing In Central Banks, All Hell Will Break Loose”

Courtesy of Detlev Schlichter Investors and speculators face some profound challenges today: How to deal with politicized markets, continuously “guided” by central bankers and regulators? To what extent do prices reflect support from policy, in particular super-easy monetary policy, and to what extent other, ‘fundamental’ factors? And how is all this market manipulation going to play […]

Italy: When Hope Is a Strategy

Thoughts from the Frontline: Italy: When Hope Is a Strategy By John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline I came back from Italy this week, and one of my guilty pleasures was being able to sit down and watch the last three episodes, including the season finale, of Game of Thrones. For those readers who are […]

Rebels Down Ukraine Helicopter in Ceasefire Violation; Putin Offers Concessions; Merkel’s Misguided Threat

Courtesy of Mish. With the downing of a another Ukraine helicopter by pro-Russia rebels, one would think tensions in the region would be up. Yet, analysts seem excited by a symbolic move from Putin. Bloomberg reports Ukraine Rebels Down Chopper as Putin Makes Concessions. Pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine shot down a government helicopter in violation […]

Things That Make You Go Hmmm: The Slip ‘n’ Fail Mutts

Things That Make You Go Hmmm: The Slip ‘n’ Fail Mutts By Grant Williams Now the news has arrived From the Valley of Vail That a Chippendale Mupp has just bitten his tail Which he does every night before shutting his eyes Such nipping sounds silly. But, really, it's wise. He has no alarm clock. […]

Debt Rattle Jun 24 2014: QE And CDS Are Weapons Of Mass Deception

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth. John Vachon Soft drinks and war bonds truck, Montgomery AL March 1943 The age of financial innnovations found such an exalted high priest in Alan Greenspan that in his days as Fed governor he couldn’t stop talking about the dangers of regulating them, even though that was in his job […]

What Your Stockbroker Is Doing With Your Stock Order and Why You Should Care

Courtesy of Pam Martens. It’s gotten to the point that to maintain an account on Wall Street you have to surrender to a no-law zone. Wall Street is the only industry in America that can force its customers’ claims into its own private justice system, effectively closing the nation’s courts to its customers, while imposing […]

Simple to Say, Harder to Do

Trading Course 101: Buy Low, Sell High By Dr. Paul Price of Market Shadows Everybody knows they should buy low and sell high, but few traders have the psychological fortitude to actually stick with the plan. When shares are cheap there are always negatives that get well publicized. Fund managers and guest hosts on CNBC […]