Archives for January 2015

The German 10 Year Bund Effectively a Call Option at 30 Basis Points

Courtesy of EconMatters Bonds are not Stocks On Friday the German 10 Year Bund yield touched the 0.30 mark or 30 basis points, yeah that`s right the same instrument that was yielding 90 basis points in November of last year, a 140 basis points last May 2014, and 195 basis points at the beginning of 2014. […]

Diving Into the GDP Report – Some Ominous Trends – Yellen Yap – Decoupling or Not?

Courtesy of Mish. Yellen Yap On Thursday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen met with Senate Democrats at a private luncheon. She told the Democrats that the U.S. Economy is Strong. My first thought was “what the heck is Yellen doing holding a private lunch with Democrats only?” Had she met with Senate Republicans, I would have […]

It’s Greece vs. Wall Street

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth DPC Grand Central Station and Hotel Manhattan, NY 1903 On the one hand, I’ve written so much about Greece lately I fear I’m reaching overkill. On the other hand, there’s so much going on with Greece, and so fast, that I wouldn’t know here to begin. Moreover, I’m thinking and […]

Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015

Courtesy of Mish. On January 21 when the Canadian Central Bank unexpected slashed interest rates, I wrote Canadian Recession Coming Up. Following the rate cut, the yield curve in Canada inverted out to three years. Inversion means near-term interest rates are higher than long-term rates. I saw no other person mention the inversion at the […]

Greece Will Not Accept Bailout Extension or Deal With “Rottenly Constructed” Troika; Mish’s Game Theory Math

Courtesy of Mish. Greece Will No Longer Deal with ‘Troika’ It now strongly appears as if Greece, Germany, and the nannycrats in Brussels are all on one hell of a collision course. Both sides have dug in, and the war of words has escalated in all corners. For example, please consider Greece Will No Longer […]

Financial Blogger Profile of “Mish” on Equities.Com

Courtesy of Mish. Daniel Banas at Equities.Com interviewed me last week via phone for their profile series on “the most distinct and noteworthy voices in the world of financial blogging.” The interview transcript follows. First a few words … I am honored to be on that list. The interview kicked off with a question on […]

Eurozone, Including Germany, in Deflation; Strange Times for Denmark, Deutschland and EU

Courtesy of Mish. Eurostat released HICP Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices statistics today. In spite of promising that deflation would not hit again, here we are, and for the second month too. Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.6% in January 2015, down from -0.2% in December 2014 according to a flash estimate […]

Looks Like I’ll Be Able To Retire Comfortably At Age 91

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds You've probably seen articles and adverts discussing how much money you'll need to "retire comfortably." The trick of course is the definition of comfortable. The general idea of comfortable (as I understand it) appears to be an income which enables the retiree to enjoy leisurely vacations on cruise ships, own […]

How Do You Solve A Problem Like Syriza?

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth Edwin Rosskam Shoeshine, 47th Street, Chicago’s main Negro business street 1941 First off, no, I don’t think Syriza is a problem, I just couldn’t resist the Sound of Music link once it popped into my head, as in ‘headlines you can sing’. I think Syriza may well be a solution, […]

Marine Le Pen Soars Into Lead in French Presidential Polls for 2017; Don’t Worry, Nothing Can Possibly Go Wrong

Courtesy of Mish. In spite of the Charlie Hebdo murders that raised the popularity of French president Francois Hollande and his staff, Les Echos reports than in the 2017 presidential election anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen in the 1st Round Lead With Nearly 30% of the Vote. According to an IFOP 2017 presidential poll released […]

Drink Up World: The 4 Companies That Control Global Whiskey Production

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here. Submitted by Tyler Durden. While there are eighty people who hold half the world's wealth, ten 'people' who run the world, and ten corporations that control nearly everything you buy… these four companies control what is – to some – the most precious commodity in the world… world […]

Conscription of People, Cars, Businesses in Ukraine for Mindless Slaughter; Entire Villages Leave to Avoid Servitude; Hop on the Bus Gus

Courtesy of Mish. Ukrainians Fighting Ukrainians Forced military conscription (slavery is a better word) imposed on citizens of Ukraine has reached new heights recently. The government in Kiev now demands those forced into slavery to hand over their cars for military use. As one might expect, avoidance of needless military slaughter has also reached new […]

“The Thread By Which Venezuelan Socialism Hangs May Soon Snap”

Courtesy of Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man Fixing the Dollar Drought Say you are a socialist, and you have intervened heavily in the economy. Suddenly, things don’t work as you thought they would. Somehow, economic laws seem to refuse to bend to your will. However, you cannot really believe that since according to your convictions, wealth is […]

The First Casualty of a Bear Market

Clear thinking? Confidence?  Consider what Mr. Buffett would do when the market is crumbling, next time you're fully invested in a falling market…. View image | The First Casualty of a Bear Market Courtesy of Joshua M Brown Nick Murray says “The ability to distinguish between volatility and loss is the first casualty of a […]

3 Things – Fed Mistake, ECB QE, Housing

Courtesy of Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management The Fed May Be Making A Mistake On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve made their latest monetary policy announcement.  Janet Yellen, the current Chairwoman, made several statements that led the markets to believe that they remain on course for increasing the overnight lending rate this year.  *FED SAYS ECONOMY […]

Alexis Tsipras “Open Letter” to German Citizens Regarding Extend-and-Pretend Unserviceable Debt

Courtesy of Mish. Here's a story from January 13 that just came my way today thanks to a reader wootendw who posted a link as a comment to one of my articles. The background to this story is SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras' "Open Letter" to German Citizens, published on Jan.13 in Handelsblatt, a leading German […]

Initial Claims Show The Healthiest Jobs Market in History, Or Maybe Not

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted (SA) number of initial unemployment claims for last week came in at 265,000, which blew out the Wall Street conomist crowd consensus guess of 301,000. The pundits had shaved 1,000 off  their guess after missing on the low side last week. My, my! Such pessimists! But […]

The Fed That Never Sees It Coming

Courtesy of Pam Martens. Alan Greenspan, Former Fed Chairman, Testifying to the House Oversight Committee on How He Got It Wrong, October 23, 2008 There is growing unease in stock and bond markets around the world that the current Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, has retrieved former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s blinders […]

Putin’s Unexpected Victory: Germany Furious That Greece Is Now A Russian Sanctions Veto

Putin's Unexpected Victory: Germany Furious That Greece Is Now A Russian Sanctions Veto Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here. Two days ago, Zero Hedge first, and shortly thereafter everyone else, pointed out something stunning: the biggest surprise to emerge so far out of the new anti-Troika/austerity Greek government was not so much its intention […]

Asset Price Deflation Coming Up? Food Prices About to Drop? CPI About to Go Negative? Credit Deflation?

Courtesy of Mish. When inflation alarmists want to convince everyone the dollar is about to become worthless, they post this chart of the CPI. CPI – Urban Consumers – All Items – Index Inflationists claim that is a trend to oblivion. And actually it is. But it’s a slow trend towards oblivion with intermittent disruptions […]

Why The U.S. Shale Boom May Come To Abrupt End

Courtesy of Arthur Berman via U.S tight oil production from shale plays will fall more quickly than most assume. Why? High decline rates from shale reservoirs is given. The more interesting reasons are the compounding effects of pad drilling on rig count and poorer average well performance with time. Rig productivity has increased but average […]

Trade by Fibonacci Numbers?

Trade by Fibonacci Numbers? The Fibonacci series of numbers make me think of designs in nature, and patterns that come to life again in art and architecture. Images like these: (Source) (Source) (Source) I also think of some rather mystic notion that the Fibonacci series of numbers — which generate the “golden ratio” — can somehow help equity traders examining a […]

The Surprising Consequences Of The Global Frenzy For Positive Yield

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds As central banks rush to depreciate their currencies and push yields into negative territory, what's becoming scarce globally is real yield in an appreciating currency. Real yield is yield adjusted for inflation/deflation: if inflation is 3% and bonds yield 2%, the real yield is negative 1%. If inflation is negative 1% (i.e. […]

Slope of Hope vs. Reality: Greek Assets Hammered, 3-Year Yield Near 17%; Worst Day Ever for Greek Bank Stocks

Courtesy of Mish. Investors who plowed into Greek assets ahead of Mario Draghi’s QE €60 billion a month bond-buying spree figuring the ECB could paper over this mess have been pounded almost nonstop recently. Today alone, Greek bank shares plunged 22-29%, and yield on the 3-year Greek treasury hit 16.97%. Worst Day in History for […]