One of the biggest question marks surrounding the Greek negotiation and ultimately, bailout extension, was just how panicked the Greek population and domestic corporations were. As previously noted, the tension boiled down to this: the Troika did everything in its power to accelerate the bank run in order to crush any negotiating leverage Varoufakis may have; Greece on the other hand was desperate to make its cash drain appear far better than rumored.
Moments ago the Bank of Greece presented its latest, January, deposit data. And it's a doozy: following a record €12.2 billion monthly outflow, greater in absolute and relative terms than anything experienced during any of the previous Greek crises and bailouts, the total amount of Greek corporate and household deposits has now tumbled to just €148 billion, down 7.7% from the month before, and down 10% since November. This number is in line with some of the more pessimistic expectations, and brings the total cash holdings at Greek banks to the lowest level since August 2005.
What's worse is that the outflow has most certainly continued in February, when according to rumors another €10 billion or more may have been withdrawn. And while the new FinMin is desperate to make it seem that now that Greece has a can-kicking bailout extension "deal" the bank run has stopped, this is very much in doubt.
One thing is certain: Greek banks, already crushed by record non-performing loans (NPLs) somewhere in the 40% range, and without any equity buffer, are now all dead banks walking following this latest cash rush. And absent another bailout – one which S&P calculated in October will need to fund Greece with more than €40 billion in additional cash – and one which will come with even more draconian conditions, we simply don't see how Greece gets away from its current "self-reinforcing feedback loop" predicament without Cyprus-style capital controls.