“NowCast” – The Evolution of GDP Forecasting

Courtesy of Mish.

In the wake of existing home sales reports on Monday, and new home sales yesterday, GDP and residential investment forecasts came tumbling down.

Check out the latest “GDP Nowcast” from the Atlanta Fed.

“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 1.7 percent on February 26, down from 1.9 percent on February 18. The first-quarter nowcast for real residential investment growth fell from 11.1 percent to 2.3 percent following Monday’s existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors and yesterday morning’s releases on sales and construction costs of single-family homes by the U.S. Census Bureau.”

Please note that the “NowCast” does not factor in this: Chicago PMI Crashes to 5 1/2 Year Low: Production, New Orders, Backlogs Suffer Double Digit Declines.

Expect another revision soon.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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