Archives for April 2015

Why Markets Are Manic – The Fed Is Addicted To The “Easy Button”

Courtesy of David Stockman via Contra Corner  Later this week another Fed meeting will pass with the policy rate still pinned to the zero bound. The month of May will make the 77th consecutive month of ZIRP—–an outcome that would have been utterly unimaginable even a decade ago; and most especially not with the unemployment rate at 5.5% and […]

The Third and Final Transformation of Monetary Policy

Thoughts from the Frontline: The Third and Final Transformation of Monetary Policy By John Mauldin The law of unintended consequences is becoming ever more prominent in the economic sphere, as the world becomes exponentially more complex with every passing year. Just as a network grows in complexity and value as the number of connections in […]

There’s No Inflation? Rents Rise 4.3% Year to Year But They Don’t Count

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner Median market rent for US rental housing units rose 4.3% year over year in the first quarter of 2015, according to data released today by the US Census Bureau. All of the gain came in the latest quarter, as rents were nearly flat for the previous […]

Ladies and Gentlemen, the Stock Market is (still) Shrinking

Ladies and Gentlemen, the Stock Market is (still) Shrinking Courtesy of Joshua M Brown When I give talks to groups of investors or my fellow advisors, one of the concepts I tend to hit on is the fact that there is “a shortage of stocks” right now. This line always draws a good laugh, but then my shtick […]

Netflix: Burn It and They Will Come

Netflix: Burn It and They Will Come Courtesy of Wade at Investing Caffeine In the successful, but fictional movie, Fields of Dreams, an Iowa farmer played by actor Kevin Costner is told by voices to build a field for baseball playing ghosts. After the baseball diamond is completed, the team of Chicago White Sox ghosts, including Shoeless […]

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Negative Second Month

Courtesy of Mish. The Fed manufacturing surveys continue to disappoint. Today, the Richmond Fed reading came in at -3 matching the lowest guess on Bloomberg. The headline index is in the minus column for the second month in a row, at minus 3 vs March’s minus 8. New orders are in the negative column for […]

Deconstructing and Debunking Shadowstats

Courtesy of Mish. An interesting article came my way today courtesy of a friend “BC”. The article is Deconstructing ShadowStats. Why is it so Loved by its Followers but Scorned by Economists? by Ed Dolan. Mish readers likely know that I believe inflation to be understated, and that I also believe Williams’ ShadowStats is wildly […]

Why the Fed Will Crash the Economy If It Hikes Rates: In Three Charts

Courtesy of Pam Martens. By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 28, 2015 If you’ve been scratching your head since the middle of last year as consumer confidence surveys depicted an optimistic, eager to spend consumer while other hard economic data was showing a sputtering economy, we’re here to put your mind to rest. You’re […]

Valuations: Maybe I am Crazy

Courtesy of Mish. Relative vs. Absolute Value As I watch valuations on stocks soar higher and higher into the stratosphere, I keep asking “where is the value?” The problem for most is confusing “relative” value vs. absolute value. Stocks may be “cheap vs. bonds” but what does that matter if bonds are ridiculously overpriced? Fair […]

What Makes Brussels More Equal Than Others

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth. Harris&Ewing Ford Motor Co. New medical center parking garage, Washington, DC 1938 Dutch daily Algemeen Dagblad ran a little article recently that we’re surprised no other news organization picked up. It concerned a proposal in the European Parliament in which the parliamentarians got to vote on raising their own paycheck […]

Japan Hits The Easy Money Wall. We May Be Next

Courtesy of John Rubino. Japan, whose monetary policy is by far the world’s most expansive, just reported retail sales that soared on the wings of all that newly-created currency. Just kidding. Retail sales tanked: Japan Retail Sales Slump Flashes Warning Signal for Kuroda (Bloomberg) – Japan’s retail sales fell in March the most since 1998, […]

Money managers say “Whatever” on the upcoming rate hike

This is surprising: Only 5% of the money managers polled by Barrons call themselves bearish. Implicit in the results is the general acceptance (80%) that the Fed's actions will determine which way the indexes move in the six months post-hike. ~ Ilene Money managers say “Whatever” on the upcoming rate hike Courtesy of Joshua M Brown Peter Boockvar […]

Charlatans exist because people crave certainty

Charlatans exist because people crave certainty Courtesy of Joshua M Brown I have a whole chapter in my book, Clash of the Financial Pundits, that explains why we’re so easily lulled into stupidity by economic or market commentators. It boils down to the fact that the world is an uncertain place, so we inherently gravitate toward those […]

Lord of The Rates Part IV – Consumer Rates

Lord of The Rates Part IV – Consumer Rates By The Banker  I’ve reviewed in recent columns what I believe happens when interest rates rise this Summer, in particular what happens to real estate when the FOMC raises the Fed funds rate, Aka “The One Rate To Rule Them All.” “…Nine for consumers doomed to die One […]

Sad News For Greece? Will Greece Kiss Troika’s Ass?

Courtesy of Mish. I am convinced the best thing for Greece is to tell the troika where to go. And recent events (at least until today) suggested Greece would do just that. On the other hand, extreme sentiment is usually wrong. It may not be, it just usually is. So please consider the British betting […]

AAPL Beats Expectations As China Becomes Dominant iPhone Market; Cash Jumps But So Does Debt

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here. Moments ago AAPL reported Q2 earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2015 which saw AAPL beat soundly on the top and bottom line as as result of a jump in iPhone sales, even as iPad and Mac sales came in below the expectation. EPS was $2.33 vs […]

6th Straight Negative New Orders Reading for Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

Courtesy of Mish. New orders in the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey came in negative for the sixth straight month today. Weakness was expected due to collapse in oil prices, but the business activity range number was lower than any Bloomberg Consensus estimate. Bloomberg Consensus Texas Manufacturing Weakens Again The Dallas Fed reports Texas Manufacturing Activity […]

Can Consumers Carry US Econ While Business Prepares For A Storm?

Courtesy of Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner Real Core Durable Good Orders (all orders except transportation equipment and defense capital goods) rose by 1.5% year to year in March. That was the actual, not seasonally adjusted number (NSA), but adjusted for inflation. On a month to month basis, the number was so-so. Orders rose by […]

Paul Volcker Invests in Foreign Banks as He Lectures on U.S. Bank Reform

Courtesy of Pam Martens. Paul Volcker (right) Hobnobbing at a Group of 30 Event Last Monday, former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker held a press conference at the National Press Club to release his nonprofit’s plan for reforming U.S. bank regulation. Volcker’s plan includes elevating the Federal Reserve to even greater heights as a super regulator […]

The 10th Man: Pascal’s Wager

The 10th Man: Pascal’s Wager By Jared Dillian Do you believe in God? Stay with me. I’m an armchair philosopher, and I’ve always wished I’d had the opportunity to be a philosophy major, because I can navel gaze with the best of them. But since then, I’ve come to know some actual philosophy professors, and as […]

The End Is Near, Part 1: The “War On Cash”

Courtesy of John Rubino. As the saying goes, you can know a person by the quality of his or her enemies. This is also true of societies, where moral evolution can be traced by simply listing the things on which they declare war. Not so long ago, for instance, the world’s good guys — the […]

Failure to Communicate: Science

This is discouraging. There seems to be a prevailing attitude, even among very intelligent people (personal observation), that science is just another subject of equivalence to religion, or apparently astrology, in explaining life in the big universe. Or, subjects that are not within the realm of science are imagined to be a science based on […]

Our Financial Future: Infinite Greed Meets A Funny Thing Called Karma

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith, OfTwoMinds Those angered by the mere question of the viability of this predatory pillaging in the name of capitalism are incapable of even admitting this cultural crisis exists. Somewhere along the line, we lost the ability to distinguish between earning a profit and maximizing private gain by any means, i.e. Infinite Greed. If you insist on making this […]

If Other Gold Miners Can Do What Newmont Just Did, Look Out

Courtesy of John Rubino. The past few years have been brutal for the gold miners, most of which brought it on themselves by starting new, high-cost mines just in time for the metal’s price to crater. The resulting write-downs and operating losses have made this without question the most unloved sector in the whole market. […]