Archives for August 2015

The Dollar: Now What?

  The Dollar: Now What? Courtesy of Marc to Market  The US dollar has been on a roller coaster ride. Many have lost confidence in the underlying trend.  An important prop for the dollar, namely the prospects for the Fed's lift-off has been pushed out again, this time ostensibly due to the heightened volatility of the […]

Nicole Foss Talks Economics At The End Of The Age Of Oil

Courtesy of The Automatic Earth Albert Freeman Effect of gasoline shortage in Washington, DC 1942   Nicole Foss recently participated in a live Skype ‘forum’ discussion at the Doomstead Diner site that also included among others, Gail Tverberg and Ugo Bardi. I declined to participate, too many cooks and all that, and seeing how long […]

The new 1% regime

  The new 1% regime Courtesy of The Reformed Broker, Joshua Brown Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at Convergex, a global brokerage company based in New York, has this to say about the proliferation of “1%” days we’ve been experiencing in the stock market this year… The surge in volatility over the past week enabled this year’s […]

The Data Still Says “Go”

  The Data Still Says “Go” Courtesy of Joshua Brown Ethan Harris, US economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, put this out to clients two days ago: As the markets continue to sell-off, an increasingly popular view among investors is that the Fed won’t hike until next year. Global growth is weak, Chinese policy […]

The One Chart The Military-Industrial Complex Is Hoping Mean Reverts

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here. Submitted by Tyler Durden. While most of the world will be hoping the following chart never (ever) mean-reverts to its previous historically devastating highs, there is one group that is 'banking' on it… The Military-Industrial Complex… Source: @MaxCRoser Of course, as Ron Paul recently explained recently, the current […]

Imagination Sets In

Courtesy of Mish. One of my constant themes over the past few years is the underfunding of state and local pension plans. Illinois is particularly bad, but let’s look at some aggregate data. The National Association of State Retirement Administrators (NASRA) provides this grim-looking annual picture. Annual Update Between the end of 2007 and end […]

How Trump Continues To Lead In The Polls

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here. Recent polls indicate that, despite public outcry against his incendiary comments on women and minorities, Donald Trump is still the leading Republican candidate. Here are some reasons Trump stays so popular with his supporters: Highly relatable lack of qualifications for holding government office Americans’ appreciation for classic underdog […]

Here’s The Argument That Wins In 2016

Courtesy of John Rubino. Vox is a fairly new website with a mission to not just report the news but explain it. A typical article will lead with a lot of background, bringing readers up to speed on what the subject is and why it matters before moving on to current events. All things considered, […]

Weekend Reading: Just A Correction, Or Something Else

Courtesy of Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management Earlier this week I posted two pieces of analysis with respect to the recent dive in the markets. The first discussed the possibility that this is just a correction within an ongoing bull market. The second delved into the possibility that a new cyclical bear market has […]

Fed Queen Race: Personal Income Rises 0.4% as Expected; Good for Rate Hikes? GDP?

Courtesy of Mish. Personal income for July rose as expected in today’s Personal Income and Outlays report. Consumer spending rose nearly as expected, led of course by auto sales. Price pressure was nonexistent. There’s no hurry for a rate hike based on the July personal income and outlays report where inflation readings are very quiet. […]

Putin To Get $3 Billion From US Taxpayers After Ukraine Bond Debacle

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here. On Thursday, Ukraine struck a restructuring agreement on some $18 billion in Eurobonds with a group of creditors headed by Franklin Templeton. The deal calls for a 20% writedown and a reprofiling that includes a maturity extension of four years and an across-the-board 7.75% coupon. All told, Kiev […]

The Troubling Decline Of Financial Independence In America

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith, Of Two Minds  By financial independence, I don't mean an inherited trust fund. I mean earning an independent living as a self-employed person. Sure, it's nice if you chose the right parents and inherited a fortune. But even without the inherited fortune, financial independence via self-employment has always been an integral part of the […]

Steve Keen on Economic Forecasts, Ponzi Schemes, GDP, China; One Way Streets and Poison

Courtesy of Mish. Economic Forecasts Economist Steve Keen pinged me in response to my post Regional Manufacturing Expectations From Mars. In that post, I compared Richmond Fed manufacturing survey expectations (six month look ahead projections made in February for August), to what actually happened in August. In response, Steve Keen Tweeted @MishGEA gets it wrong! […]

The Dow Roundtrips

  The Dow Roundtrips Courtesy of Joshua Brown, The Reformed Broker   Five trading days in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and a roundtrip between here and the close last Friday. God forbid you had gone a few days doing something other than obsessing over the market. You’d take a look at the current level […]

Computers are the new Dumb Money

  Computers are the new Dumb Money Courtesy of Joshua M. Brown, The Reformed Broker You want the box score on this latest weekly battle in the stock market? No problem: Humans 1, Machines 0 Because if you think it was human beings executing sales of Starbucks (SBUX) down 22% on Monday’s open, you’re dreaming. And […]

Yet Another Dispute Over GDP; What’s Really on the Fed’s Mind?

Courtesy of Mish. Disputes over GDP go on and on and on. MarketWatch reports By another measure, the U.S. economy was ho-hum in second quarter. There are two ways to compute how well the economy is doing. One is to tally all the goods and services produced during a given time period — that’s called […]

The Best Explanation If Exposed As An Ashley Madison Member…

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here. … comes from Dan Loeb of Third Point, who as Gawker points out admits to being a member of the hacked cheating website: due diligence: “As my family, friends and business colleagues know, I am a prolific web surfer. Did I visit this site to see what it was […]

“Computer Glitch” Plaguing ETFs Is “Unrelated” To Monday’s Flash Crash, BNY Swears

Courtesy of ZeroHedge. View original post here. On Wednesday, we asked if Monday’s catastrophic ETF collapse which saw over 200 funds fall by at least 10% was just a warmup for a meltdown of even greater proportions.  The problem, you’ll recall, was that in the midst of Monday’s flash-crashing mayhem, a number of ETFs traded […]

A Bottom, But Not THE Bottom

Courtesy of Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management Earlier this week I posted two articles. The first discussed the possibility that this is just a correction within an ongoing bull market. The second delved into the possibility that a new cyclical bear market has begun. Only time will tell which is truly the case. The bounce […]

GDP by Other Measures; Will the “Real” GDP Please Stand Up?

Courtesy of Mish. In the wake of a stronger than expected GDP report (see Second Quarter GDP Revised Up, as Expected, Led by Autos, Housing), some are questioning the stated growth. For example, the Consumer Metrics Institute says "On the surface this report shows solid economic growth for the US economy during the second quarter […]

Okay, We’re Awake Now

Courtesy of John Rubino. It’s safe to say that most of the world is riveted by the news pouring out of the major (and minor) stock markets. Record declines followed by near-record spikes — besides being disorienting for anyone with a preferred direction — are uncomfortably reminiscent of early 2008 when volatility in pretty much […]

Who Will Be The Bagholders This Time Around?

Courtesy of Charles Hugh-Smith of Of Two Minds Once global assets roll over for good, it's important to recall that somebody owns these assets all the way down. These owners are called bagholders, as in "left holding the bag." Those running the rigged casino have to select the bagholders in advance, lest some fat-cat cronies inadvertently […]

Kansas City Region Activity Remains in Deep Contraction

Courtesy of Mish. Unlike housing and auto sectors, economic regions dependent on oil activity remain severely stressed. For example, the Kansas City Fed regional factory report came in today at -9, compared to an Economic Consensus of -4. Factory activity in the Kansas City Fed's region remains in deep contraction, at minus 9 in August […]

Second Quarter GDP Revised Up, as Expected, Led by Autos, Housing

Courtesy of Mish. Economists had been expecting today’s second quarter GDP estimate to rise from initial readings, based largely on auto sales and housing, and they were correct. “The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the ‘advance’ estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the […]