Phil’s Stock World Weekly Trading Webinar – 9-29-15

Watch Phil's Weekly Trading Webinar (9-29-15); over at YouTube, you can subscribe to the PSW channel. 

Major topics include: the Nasdaq chart, 5% rule, Japan's debt (250% of GDP), market's bounce, gold, money supplies, government shutdowns (are the republicans that crazy?), S&P, socialism, capitalism, end of the month market & LL, AAPL, MU trades. 

Content time spots 

  • 1:49 Nasdaq chart & 5% Rule
  • 4:30 Fibonacci – progressions and growth, in nature, include contractions.  Stocks act like living things – growing and contracting and growing again. The 5% rule is based on the principles of nature and psychology (our desire to round numbers). Traders behave according to natural tendendies, so stocks do too. Discussion of the big charts, Nasdaq chart analysis. 
  • 12:00 The problem with the stimulus which has pushed stocks higher over the recent years. How the Fed increases its balance sheet. The Fed's big balance sheet is going to have to be unwound at some point. 
  • 17:00 Are we in the "end game" like Japan? Japan is in debt by 250% of its GDP. Fooling people. You can fool some of the people all of the time. But you can't fool most of the people all of the time. 
  • 20:30 Nasdaq 100 chart shows weak bounce line this morning.
  • 24:50 S&P Chart: weak bounce line.
  • 29:00 Gold and printing more money. Phil likes gold because they keep printing more money into circulation. So the amount of money goes up but the amount of gold does not. 
  • 37:00 Money supply has tripled: the amount of money in circulation has increased 200% since the financial crisis. But the turnover ratio–the velocity of money–has steadily declined. Rich people now get more money directly, with less circulation through the economy. Directly or after circulating, money ends up with the banks. Policies, like QE, which hand money directly to rich people decrease the velocity of money. Anything the puts more money into circulation is good for gold and silver. 
  • 46:20 Government shutdowns. There's a bill going to House for funding till December. Are the republicans crazy enough to let the government shut down?
  • 48:45 Nasdaq and S&P 500: favorites shorts. Some companies are still very over-priced. 
  • 53:00 America is getting better. We need wages to rise, but we're in an anti-worker environment. We need projects to put people to work on things that need to get done anyway, such as infrastructure improvements. Discussion of Keynes. 
  • 58:00 Think or Swim
  • 58:20 What's shortable? 
  • 59:00 Phil should be in charge of the country for a while. Give him one month, then Bernie Sanders can take over. Discussion about new ideas for government. 
  • 1:03:10 Nasdaq, DJIA, S&P stocks. Stock propping–for example, if you can hold up a large key stock like AAPL, you can make an index look good while most stocks are suffering. This can force buys on weaker stocks via the ETFs. Thus, at the end of a rally, the big key stocks will do well until the propping game is over. It's not a real market. Who's manipulating it? Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, anyone with a 99% success rate in trading.
  • 1:09:26 Jefferson said we need to have a revolution on a regular basis. Politics. The Constitution started off with good intentions. 
  • 1:11:22  Phil on Socialism and Capitalism. Socialism, the "society first" mindset, let us evolve as a species. Socialism holds that people are more important than corporations. Capitalism didn't used to be a bad word, but it is now for a lot of people. Capitalism just meant that profits dictated decisions. Capitalism became popular after we overthrew the monarchs. But people didn't think we'd have new monarchy of people that are so rich that they can write laws… Politicians are not that expensive to bribe. Republicans will never have a Bernie Sanders. 
  • 1:16:15 End of the month market–can stocks be propped up? Tomorrow should have higher volume. 
  • 1:17:15 LL position, puts, trade ideas.
  • 1:23:15 SQQQ, AAPL, Micron (MU) trade ideas. 

 

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