Archives for May 2016

Our Investing Philosophy In Action

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Paul Price (previous writer for the Market Shadows newsletter) and Market Shadows are now partnering with Lowenthal Capital Partners at Seeking Alpha. The new partnership is called Arrow Loop Research. If you miss reading Paul Price’s articles on stocks and the market, take a free trial to ALR’s newsletter at Seeking Alpha, click here.

Summary

  • Value-oriented investing philosophy.
  • Methodology for buying quality stocks when they are trading at attractive levels.
  • Guidelines for building a portfolio.

A. Investing Philosophy

Our investing philosophy is captured well by these famous quotes:

“Basically, price fluctuations have only one significant meaning for the true investor. They provide him with an opportunity to buy wisely when prices fall sharply and to sell wisely when they advance a great deal.” ~ Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor

“The common intellectual theme of the investors from Graham-and-Doddsville is this: they search for discrepancies between the value of a business and the price of small pieces of that business in that market.” ~ Warren Buffett, speaking at Columbia Business School in 1984

B. Methods

1. Price Assessment

We love to take advantage of price vs. value divergences when we find them.

Stocks go “on sale” for various reasons such as earnings misses, company-specific setbacks, and/or general market weakness. Sometimes there is no clear explanation. Whatever the cause, price weakness often leads to very favorable risk/reward profiles – i.e., a good time to buy.

Buy/sell decisions can’t be made until we establish “fair value” – our target price – for the stock in question. To arrive at that, we use a combination of fundamental analysis along with the stock’s historical valuation metrics. Applying normalized metrics to forward estimates, we determine a reasonable 12-month target price range.

Experience shows that “reversion to the mean” occurs predictably over almost all six- to 18-month time periods.

Identifying inaccurately priced shares is key to success. However, keep in mind, not all stocks trading near their lows are being mispriced.

Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.

Arrow Loop picture credit: By Urban (Own work) [GFDL or CC-BY-SA-3.0], via Wikimedia Commons. Castle of Caen, arrow slit (or loop) [meurtrière].