Dr. Paul Price is managing the Virtual Value Portfolio and the Virtual Put Selling Portfolio. He specializes in value investing, augmented with the sale of equity options.

Paul has been a featured speaker at the Options and Forex Expo in Las Vegas and the International Traders’ Expo in New York City. He is a featured columnist every business day on The Street’s Real Money Pro web site.

For more about Paul, please read here.

Soy Numero Uno

BG  Jan. 31, 2006 - Jan. 31, 2008

By Paul Price of Market Shadows

Bunge Limited (BG) is the world’s largest processor of soybeans. It is also a major producer of vegetable oils, fertilizer, sugar and bioenergy.

When commodities got hot in 2007-08, Bunge’s EPS shot up and the stock followed, rising 185% in 19 months.

The Great Recession took its toll on [Continue Reading]

Everything Looks Clearer… in the Rear View Mirror

Rear-View Mirror

Explaining Past Events is Safer than Predicting the Future

By Paul Price of Market Shadows

Brave souls who write about stocks always subject themselves to potential embarrassment if they take a stand on the future movement of their selected company. Including both a price target and a time horizon makes you accountable if things [Continue Reading]

Perhaps Someone Should Share this Information with our President

Janet Yellen on America's Economy

Note from Paul Price

Insanity: Doing the same thing again and again while expecting a different result.

 

More than five years of QE and not much to show for it, unless you’re at the top of the QE gift card bracket. 

Wall Street Pulls Its Pud Over Headline Jobless Claims Data

By [Continue Reading]

Insider Action

Usual Suspects - DJIA

Officers and Directors usually like to buy low and sell high. 

By Paul Price of Market Shadows

Company officers turned more bullish as the market was selling off and, now, after fears of a major sell-off vanished like Kayser Soze in “The Usual Suspects.” 

 

This short-term indicator suggests it is safe to go into the water. We never [Continue Reading]

Better than Berkshire?

VMI  10-years 2004 - 2013

Valmont Industries could be the greatest growth stock you’ve never heard of.

By Paul Price of Market Shadows

Is it better than Berkshire Hathaway? The numbers say yes.

You would think that a stock that turned $10,000 into $64,415 over the most recent decade would attract a lot of ink. In reality, very few investors [Continue Reading]

Our Win Percentage Rose to 88.5% Today

CCL   Chart with put

Option Expiration Came One Day Early this Month 

By Paul Price of Market Shadows

Market Shadows’ Virtual Put Writing Portfolio had one short option position expire after today’s close.  The result was not in doubt. Carnival Cruise Lines parent company, Carnival Corporation (CCL), had taken a big hit last September on a lot of [Continue Reading]

Market Shadows Didn’t Wait for Good Friday

VVP as of Apr. 17, 2014

Every day was a holiday this week in terms of making money.

By Paul Price of Market Shadows

We truly enjoyed all four days of the holiday shortened trading week which culminated with the Virtual Value Portfolio sitting at an all-time record by the  4 PM  closing time on Thursday. Our $100,000 stake [Continue Reading]

Canary In the Yen Shaft: $10 trillion JGBs; No Bids!

Banksy in Detroit

Two guest authors, David Stockman and long-time contributor John Rubino, write about Abenomics. 

Canary In the Yen Shaft: $10 trillion JGBs; No Bids!

By  

This one matters a lot. Abenomics was predicated on a lunatic notion—namely, that the economic ills from Japan’s massive debt overhang could be cured by [Continue Reading]

Those new Puerto Rican bonds? Worse than stocks.

Sucker - image

Puerto Rico Bonds Down 5% In First Month

Michael Aneiro of Barron’s noted that Puerto Rico’s recent bond offering has been worse than the stock market.

In fact the bonds have been trading today at levels that would mark a 5% loss for investors since Puerto Rico sold $3.5 Billion worth, one month ago. 

The bonds now [Continue Reading]

Winning: Defined as Losing Less

VVP as of Apr. 11, 2014

Market Shadows Excelled – With a 1.36% Weekly Decline

By Paul Price of Market Shadows

In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is King. Our Virtual Value Porfolio took on that role this week as we lost a modest 1.36% of our value while the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq  Composite [Continue Reading]

Against the Grain Action in C H Robinson

CHRW  logo

Those who watch what’s UP when most stocks are FALLING might want to check out the action in CHRW.

Logistics company C H Robinson (CHRW) was up yesterday and is up nicely again today (+ 2.29% as of 2:03 PM) despite the big market sell-off. There are large size bids from call buyers.

Is good news [Continue Reading]

IPO-ed: ALLY and LQ

426952154

For more about the IPO-ed ALLY, read David Stockman’s post, copied below. He also covers La Quinta, an “uninspired mish-mash” of hotels. 

Tops In! La Quinta And Ditech Are Back

Courtesy of  

This Wall Street Journal headline surely speaks of a market top:

U.S. IPO Market Expects Busiest Week Since [Continue Reading]

The Most Important Reason to Avoid ALLY (in one simple visual)

ALLY First Trading Day

By Paul Price

Ally Financial (ALLY: the old GMAC) came public this week at $25 but has never traded that high again since. 

ALLY needed a taxpayer funded bailout to survive the 2008-09 credit crunch. They failed early banking industry stress tests.

They have one big problem compared to all their major competitors.

One picture is worth [Continue Reading]

The Dr. Phil (and Dr. Paul) School of Investing

IM 2012 GF chart

By Paul Price of Market Shadows

 

Television’s Dr. Phil is famous for saying that the best predictor of people’s future behavior is their past behavior.  

I agree with him on that point and think it applies to stock trading just as much as it does with human behavior. A stock’s own history [Continue Reading]